This article was submitted by Jeryl Matlock, KQ4EDV. She collaborates with TARS, the Tallahassee Amateur Radio Society, accessible via k4tlh.org. TARS is a community hub for amateur radio enthusiasts.
Some people group emergency management hazards into three broad categories: natural, human-caused and technological. Others in emergency management use a paradigm from the field of economics, consisting of Gray Skies, Gray Rhino, Black Swan, and Dragon King scenarios. So, what do rhinos, swans and dragons have to do with emergencies and disasters and how do I prepare myself and my family for these scenarios? That is an excellent question.
The best place to start is with some definitions. Gray Skies scenarios include emergencies or disasters. Emergencies are situations that can usually be managed with locally or regionally available resources. Disasters require more resources than the local jurisdiction or region can provide, thereby necessitating outside assistance. Car crashes, medical emergencies, building fires, tornadoes, or hurricanes can be considered Gray Skies incidents. Gray Rhinos are dangerous, obvious, highly probable, understood but ignored threats. These tend to occur after warning signs and visible evidence. Bridge collapses, catastrophic flooding, massive wildfires, widespread blackouts, and Hurricane Katrina would fall into this category.
Interestingly, a group of rhinos is called a crash. A Black Swan incident is a significant incident that surprises everyone when it occurs. Based on limited experience, it seems to be impossible. Getting hit by a meteorite, World War 1, dissolution of the Soviet Union, planes crashing into the World Trade Center, the Covid 19 pandemic, and cyber-attacks would fall into this category.
A Dragon King is an extreme event that starts out with precursors followed by a tipping point and a phased transition with massive consequences that seem out of proportion to the event. A cattle stampede, Three Mile Island, catastrophic flooding, widespread power grid failure, or plagues that killed a third of the world’s population are considered Dragon King scenarios.
Among Dragon King scenarios, power grid failure presents unique challenges. There are 79,000 power substations in the United States. A power substation is a facility within an electrical grid that converts and distributes electricity, typically by stepping voltage up or down, and switching power lines. A 2014 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission report indicated that within the U.S. power distribution system, 30 of these substations play a critical role in maintaining a functioning electrical grid. Disabling only 9 of these substations can result in a cascading failure of the rest of the U.S. power grid. Additionally, in some cases, it takes power to make power. Some power generation stations need to have power to start producing power for the grid. A total power grid restart, also known as a black start, has never been attempted after a complete shutdown of the entire power grid.
Consider preparing for Gray Rhinos and build capabilities and capacities to respond to Black Swans. Think about what Gray Rhinos you and your family could be impacted by and begin or continue preparedness efforts to address identified gaps related to preparedness for those various scenarios.
From the practical side of things, the level of preparedness at the individual level depends on several factors: The individual’s definition of preparedness. What some people consider prepared, others do not. Some individuals can stockpile food and other essentials, while others struggle to have basic resources necessary for day-to-day living.
They also must determine the availability of those resources when they are needed. In some circumstances, such as during an evacuation, individuals may not be able to access their preparedness items and supplies.
For personal and family preparedness, fluids and food are a good place to start. For fluids, one gallon per person per day is a good estimate. Fluid requirements can increase with higher ambient temperatures and physical activity. Remember that some fluids that contain caffeine can act as diuretics, increasing fluid output. In most people, a good general measure of hydration is urine color. Urine should be colorless to light yellow.
As for food stockpiles, math can be a useful tool in determining how much to stockpile. Your basal metabolic rate (BMR) is the number of calories you burn as your body performs basic (basal) life-sustaining function. Think of it like the number of calories you would burn if you stayed in bed or sat in a chair all day. If you search ‘basal metabolic rate calculator’ online, several websites will appear that you help can calculate the BMRs (the minimum daily caloric requirements) for yourself and the individuals that you are stockpiling for. By looking at the food label on the food product, you can multiply the calories per serving times the number of servings in the package to give you the total number of calories in the package or container. Add together the total number of calories in the stockpile. Next, divide the total number of calories in the stockpiled by the BMR calories needed per day, which will give you the number of days your stockpile would last. If you are stockpiling for multiple people, remember to add the BMRs together to calculate the daily caloric requirement for the group. Prioritize foods stockpiled for an emergency or disaster use based on calories, nutrients, and taste, in that order. Meeting the basic daily caloric needs in a disaster is more important than meeting nutritional needs. For individuals with medical conditions that may be impacted by changes in fluid intake (e.g. people with kidney conditions) or caloric intake (e.g. people with blood sugar challenges), consider consulting with your health care provider prior to an incident to get guidance on how to best prepare for emergencies and disasters from the fluids and food perspective.
For pet fluid intake, fill their water bowl with a measured amount of water at the beginning of the day. Calculate how many bowls of water they drink per day and multiply that against the measured amount you added each time. That total gives you what their average fluid intake is per day. For example, if I have 20 ounces of water in their bowl in the morning and refill the bowl 5 times throughout the day, their average fluid intake is 100 ounces of fluid a day. Just like their owners, fluid requirements for pets can increase with higher ambient temperatures and physical activity. For their food, record when you open their container of food how long that container lasts. Do this for a few containers to determine their average consumption rate. This can help to determine how long your current stockpile of pet food will last if you were unable to get a resupply from the store. Supplement the amount of the pet food in the stockpile based on how long you want the pet food stockpile to last.
Consider stockpiling foods you and your family usually eat whenever possible. This is important for two reasons. First, it helps to rotate your stock (remember FIFO – First In First Out) and second, familiar food can become comfort foods in a disaster. Establishing PAR (Periodic Automatic Replacement) levels for the various stockpiled items can help to ensure minimum levels of the items in the stockpile. As an example, let’s say that you set a level of five jars of peaut butter in the stockpile. Through regular non disaster use, the level of unopened jars drops to three, its time to go shopping and get two more jars to bring that item back to the desired stockpile level.
Start by taking stock of what you have, then move towards increasing the stockpile as resources allow. If you have three days’ worth of fluids and food, set the goal of having a seven-day supply. Work towards that goal. When supplies reach the seven-day stockpile goal, make a conscious effort towards ten days, or whatever your personal definition of an adequate stockpile is. Small steps towards a goal can make a big difference over time.
Patrick Gardner is an Emergency Medical Technician and Registered Nurse. He is also the Emergency Coordination Officer and Safety Coordinator for the Department of Revenue in Tallahassee, Florida. He lectures and conducts training internationally on the topics of crisis leadership, disaster preparedness and incident response. Work experience includes pre-hospital, hospital, public health care and academia, as well as disaster management planning, coordination, and response.
Pat KI4DUE
Tallahassee Amateur Radio Society
Monticello, Florida
